statistical analysis of long-term trend of performance, production and cultivated area of 17 field crops khorasan razavi province

any planning for the future requires estimates of future conditions. it is possible to study changes over time series. in this study, changes of production and cultivated area of 17 field crops of khorasan razavi province in a 25-year period were determined with mann - kendall test, sen’s estimator slope and linear regression. analysis of the three tests showed that performance of 76.5% from yield, 88.2% from area under cultivation and 55.8% from agricultural production were significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level. on the other hand, trend of yields 58.8% was increase, 17.7% was reduced and 23.5% was no significant trend. similarly, trend of 23.5% from area under cultivation was acreage, 64.7% was reduction, and 11.8% was no significant trend. for production variable, 29.4% was significantly increased and 29.4% was significant reduction. more detailed analysis showed that performance, production and area under cultivation of three crops of cotton, grain and tomatoes increased significantly. results of all three methods showed the highest trend of negatively performance and area under cultivation variation is related to pea and melon respectively. furthermore, most of the positive trend in production of tomatoes and grain, performance in onions, potatoes and tomatoes and area under cultivation in tomato observed. the results showed that linear trend and the nonparametric tests of important products of province: wheat, barley, sugar beet, cotton, melons, watermelons and tomatoes in 0.01 were significant. this result shows the importance of these yields in gross state province product.